Rolex Masters Shanghai ATP Day 1 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Saturday, October 5, 2019 7:37 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019 7:37 PM UTC

Pospisil is likely to go long against Granollers in quick conditions

<div><h2>Vasek Pospisil vs Marcel Granollers</h2><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank">Monday, October 6, Shanghai</a></strong></p><p>Day one of the Shanghai Rolex Masters and we have 7 qualification matches still to play alongside 4 first rounds. There are some intriguing matchups and tough first rounds. The power and all-out aggressiveness of Basilashvili come up against the consistency and maneuverability of Albot. Verdasco takes on Fritz in what is likely to be dominated by heavy hitting and power play. Hurkacz takes on home hope Zhang while Sousa takes on Krajinovic. Nothing stands out as value in the main draw but, given the quick conditions, the over bet appeals in a couple of the qualifying matches.</p><p>Shanghai is one of the quickest events on tour and easily the fastest Masters event. It has seen 3.2% more holds than the hard court average and 5% more tiebreaks per set. Conditions are warm and there is little wind and no rain forecast so it should be ideal for long sets.</p><p>Pospisil is 6’ 4” and very serve-orientated holding 86.2% and breaking 17.4% over the last year at main level. I would be very surprised if he was broken much in this match but he is clearly far weaker from the back of the court so he should not be able to get much traction on return. He is an excellent player for over bets generally and especially in tight matches. Priced 1.5 to 2.99 the over bet has landed 62% of his last 50 and 3 of his 4 matches priced 1.5 to 1.99 in Shanghai have seen the 'over' land.</p><p>Granollers is not an ideal player for this bet but he is 6’ 3” and has held serve more than 80% over the last year at main level. He’s lost in under the over line just 13 times in his last 50 matches priced 2 to 2.99 and he’s never lost in under 23 games priced 2 to 2.99 in Shanghai. He played well in his opening round of qualification defeating Popyrin priced 2.4. Pospisil too had a good opening win over Mannarino priced 2.3. They’re priced close to evens and I would expect this to be a tightly fought match without too many chances on serve. They’ve met once before and the over bet would have won comfortably as they went to a third set.</p><p>All things considered, I would have said 1.66 to 1.72 was fair on this line so it’s an easy bet at anything 1.8+.</p><p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Over 22.5 games at 1.95 with Sportpesa</p><p> </p><h2>Juan Ignacio Londero vs Bradley Klahn</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank"><strong>Monday, October 6, Shanghai</strong></a></p><p>Two evenly matched, tall, serve-orientated players and once again a nice price on the over line offers us an easy bet. Londero is 6’ 2” and Klahn 6’ 3” and they are priced exactly evens for this match. I would expect it to be tight and the American is particularly serve-orientated and the main focus.</p><p>Klahn has held serve 83.1% and broken 10.6% over the last year at main level, playing 0.28 tiebreaks per set. The 'over' bet has landed in 58% of his last 50 priced 1.5 to 2.99 on hard courts including 4 of his last 6 since September (end of year). In his first round of qualification, he defeated Jarry 7-6 3-6 7-5 priced 1.66.</p><p>Londero is better on return but still serves orientated holding 81.9% and breaking 21.5%. Tour average is 79.5%/20.5%. The 'over' bet has landed or been returned in 12 of his 21 matches priced 1.5 to 2.99 on hard courts including the last 3 on the spin. He defeated Troicki 6-4, 7-6 in his opening round of qualification priced 1.55.</p><p>Not a whole lot needs to be said with 'over' bets as long as the stats add up. They both played tight opening rounds of qualification and I would expect more of the same. I would have had this line at 1.72 to 1.8 so at 1.9 it has appeal.</p><p><strong>Best bet:</strong> Over 22.5 games at 1.9 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a></p></div>
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