Rolex Masters Shanghai ATP Day 2 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, October 6, 2019 6:47 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 6, 2019 6:47 PM UTC

Pospisil can cover the handicap against Schwartzman in quick conditions
<div><h2>Vasek Pospisil vs Diego Schwartzman</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, October 7, Shanghai</strong></a></p><p>Almost the definition of a clash of styles in this encounter with Pospisil a serve and volley specialist and Schwartzman a baseline grinder. Conditions will suit the big servers and power players so I would expect Pospisil to at least keep this tight and the handicap appeals at odds against.</p><p>Pospisil is not a player I would ever back blind and his mental game can be poor especially under pressure, but he is a former world number 25 and in the right conditions can be superb. Shanghai is fast and fairly low bouncing so it should be almost perfect for Vasek to execute his big serving, power orientated style and indeed he has a 12-6 record at the venue and 88.6% ROI. More importantly he has only ever once lost by more than 3 games and that was against Novak Djokovic, world number 1, who won 6-4 6-4. He’s 3.5 in this match and priced 2 to 6 in Shanghai he has won 6 of 10 matches and his four losses have all come by 3 or fewer games, so this bet would have won in all 10. More generally, when priced 2 to 6 this handicap has won or been returned in 16 of his last 20 matches going back to 2017.</p><p>Schwartzman is the most return orientated player on tour so he is far from ideal for this bet, but again the context is key. Diego’s game is almost entirely based around redirecting pace, defending well and being able to put the ball in awkward places. In fast, low bouncing conditions that is very difficult and he has struggled in Shanghai historically with a 1-3 record and his one win was by 3 games priced almost identically to this match. Last year he lost 6-3 6-4 priced as favourite against another big server, Querrey, and he has a poor 4-6 record and -30.4% ROI in China generally including losing 6 of his last 8 matches. Last week he defeated Verdasco by 2 games before losing to Querrey priced 1.58. More generally, 19 of his 34 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 in non slam hard court matches have seen this handicap land which his 55%.</p><p>Lots of trends pointing in the same direction in this one. However you look at it I think this should be odds on not odds against so it’s a very easy bet.</p><p><strong>Best Bet</strong>: Vasek Pospisil +3.5 games at 2.2 with <a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Betfair </a>[1u]</p><p><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><h2>Jeremy Chardy vs Kyle Edmund</h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, October 7, Shanghai</strong></a></p><p>There are a few potential options but nothing stands out enough in the women’s side so I’ll take another small bet in the men’s. Edmund has been dire of late and I feel the quick conditions make Chardy favourite in this match up.</p><p>Edmund is a better player on good form but he has been poor recently and will not enjoy the quick conditions. His game requires more of a wind up than Chardy and is</p><p>loopier, plus he’s had a tendency recently to spray errors. Chardy by contrast is a player with a very powerful, flat serve, and his backhand is weak so he enjoys low bouncing conditions as they aid his backhand slice. My guess is that Chardy will be able to rush Edmund and force the issue, especially as the Brit is in dire need of some rallies to get rhythm.</p><p>Stats are also supportive with Edmund easily opposable in 2019. He has a 13-11 record and -23.4% ROI as favourite and he’s lost 6 of his last 10. On hard courts he’s won just 3 of his last 10 matches for a -39.1% ROI. Last out he lost 7-6 in the third priced 1.3 against Zhang in conditions which should suit more than Shanghai. Chardy by contrast has been good to back as underdog this year with a 14.2% ROI and he’s won 6 of his last 10. On hard courts he has won 7 of his last 10 for a 33.8% ROI. That includes last round where he defeated Evans in 3 sets priced 2.2. The match before that he lost in two tiebreaks to Khachanov priced 4 so his immediate form is very solid especially on serve.</p><p>It’s a tricky match to price and evens does not feel huge value, so I’ll stick to half stakes, but I would expect Chardy to have the edge in these conditions and lots of things make me think he’s the value play.</p><p><strong>Best Bet</strong>: Jeremy Chardy winner at 2 with <a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a> [0.5u]</p></div>
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