Rolex Masters Shanghai ATP Day 6 WTA Tianjin Day 5 Best Bets

Tennis Pilot

Thursday, October 10, 2019 6:23 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 10, 2019 6:23 PM UTC

Big hitting Berrettini has the game to rush Thiem in quick conditions.
<div><h2><strong>Matteo Berrettini vs Dominic Thiem</strong></h2><p><strong>Friday, October 11, Shanghai</strong></p><p>Onto day 6 of the Shanghai Masters and we have 4 matches on the card for Friday. Our win streak was broken last out with one void and one loss from the two bets and we can count ourselves a little unfortunate. On the women’s side, Peterson was a set up before Wang retired voiding the games handicap. More frustratingly, Pouille was up 40-15 on serve at 5-6 against Isner but he lost 4 points in a row and was broken on the first break point of the set. The tiebreak was down to 1.01 in play but no dice.</p><p>Turning to today’s matches, there are some interesting match ups and several options appeal on the betting front. Djokovic takes on Tsitsipas and while the young, rising talent has given Novak issues in the past I would be surprised to see an upset on current form. Medvedev my well be tested by Fognini and looks short at 1.23, but it still seems ill advised to go against the Russian so again I’ll swerve that match. Federer has some appeal against Zverev at 1.6 given his clear statistical edge and better overall form, but his level has been questionable so far this week and Zverev has looked better recently making it a tough judgement call. The clearest value of the day for me is to side with Berrettini in some form against Thiem.</p><p>Berrettini has gone from strength to strength in recent years and his game is very well suited to quick hard courts. At 6’ 4” he has a huge serve and his game is based around power. Berrettini is priced 2.75 in this match and priced 2 to 3 he has a phenomenal 31-18 record for a 45.9% ROI and he’s won 9 of his last 10. Against the top 20 he has a 9-6 record and 38.1% ROI winning 7 of his last 10. Berrettini’s form this week has been excellent holding 92.6% and breaking 39.3% so far. Thiem, for comparison, has held 90.5% and broken 26.3% against a comparable level of opposition.</p><p>Thiem has played surprisingly well on hard courts of late but conditions do not suit his game and he has a history of being good to oppose in similar situations. He needs time to wind up his shots and is vulnerable to being rushed on quick courts, especially on the backhand. Prior to this week he had won just 2 of 6 matches in Shanghai and his last two losses came against Ebden priced 1.22 and Troicki priced 1.4. On hard courts generally he has a -6.3% ROI over his last 50 and he’s lost 5 of his last 10 priced 1.5 to 1.99 going back to 2017.</p><p>I’d have said 2.25 to 2.37 was fair so at 2.7 I think we have the value in this match up.</p><p><strong>Tennis bet:</strong> <a href=";a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Betway!">Matteo Berrettini to win at 2.75 with Betway [1u]</a></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2><br /><strong>Veronika Kudermetova vs Dayana Yastremska (3)</strong></h2><p><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Friday, October 11, Tianjin</strong></a></p><p>We’ve got 4 matches on the women’s side too and I’m going to take a chance on an underdog despite their poor 3-28 record in Tianjin so far this week. Kudermetova has been a punters best friend in 2019 and while Yastremska is a formidable opponent she looks too short for me.</p><p>Yastremska is the higher ranked player and I would argue she has a better peak level but on overall numbers these two are very comparable. They have each won 64% of their last 50 matches at main level over the last 12 months and Kudermetova has a 0.5% edge in the combined service/return points won on hard courts. Yastremska is 19 and as often with talented young players she does her best work as the underdog. Priced as favourite against the top 100 she has a 18-12 record over the last 12 months for a -9% ROI. Kudermetova is ranked 45 and Yastremska has a 8-8 record priced as favourite against the top 50 for a -14.3% ROI. Despite a comfortable 6-2 6-4 win over Peng priced 1.3 last round Yastremska actually gave up one more break point than her opponent, she was just more clinical on break points.</p><p>Kudermetova has had an excellent year with a 45-24 record and 21.6% ROI. Hard courts are her best surface and she has won 69.44% of matches on the surface in 2019 for a 31.3% ROI. She does her best work as the underdog winning 41% of matches lifetime for a 19.8% ROI. She’s 2.75 in this match and priced 2 to 3 she has a 15-13 record and 38.7% ROI. Against the top 50 she has a 10-10 record and 63.6% ROI including winning 6 of her last 10. Their one H2H match came in 2016 so bears little relevance but it is interesting that Kudermetova won as slight underdog. In her opening round she defeated Tomljanovic 6-4 6-2 and she was 5-0 up last out before Zheng retired so her form is good coming into this match.</p><p>Lots of reasons to think the underdog offers value, but given the poor underdog form in this event and the general high level shown by Yastremska recently I’m happy sticking to half stakes.</p><p><strong>Tennis bet: </strong><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Get in the game with Bet365">Veronika Kudermetova to win at 2.75 with Bet365 [0.5u]</a></p></div>
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