Back to form Zverev can keep it close against Medvedev in quick conditions.
<div><h2><strong>Daniil Medvedev (3) vs Alexander Zverev (5)</strong></h2><p><strong>Sunday, October 13, Shanghai</strong></p><p>We’re onto the final of Shanghai which has been a historic tournament on several fronts. For the first time since 2009, none of Djokovic, Federer or Murray will take the title and we had the youngest semi final line up of a Masters since Indian Wells in 2007. Finally the old guard have started to wane with the big 4 winning just 4 of the 8 Masters so far in 2019, their fewest since 2004, though we still have Paris. For a long while it felt like the young, rising talents were unable to really make their mark against the elite four, but times they are a changing.</p><p>Turning to the match itself, it’s hard not to think we’re in for an excellent final. Medvedev has been the story of 2019, especially his run since Wimbledon making his last 6 finals in a row. He has won all 10 of his matches as favourite against the top 20 and he’s won his last 16 sets in a row. In contrast, Zverev has seemed to be distracted by off court issues and has been poor overall in 2019, but he’s reportedly sorted out his life and his tennis does seem much better for it, especially this week. It’s easy to forget how formidable Zverev is when in form. He’s 2.4 in this match and his record priced 2 to 6 against the top 10 in non slam matches is 12-11 for a 64.2% ROI. Just last year he defeated Federer priced 3.4 and Djokovic priced 6 back to back to win the ATP World Tour Finals after having played fairly uninspiring tennis for most of 2018.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>In short, I could make a case for both players, but I would rather not oppose either, so I’ll turn to the side markets in search of value. The most obvious angle is to take a chance on a tight, serve orientated match given the quick conditions in Shanghai, quality of serving from these two so far this week and my expectation of a highly competitive match. Neither player is particularly good for tiebreaks generally but that is because they are far too dominant against most opposition and break too easily. That seems unlikely to be the case based on their respective form this week and historically.</p><p>Medvedev is 6’ 6” and Zverev is 6’ 4” with both possessing excellent serves and they have been serving exceptionally well this week. Zverev has won 74% of service points while Medvedev is on 71.1% and they have played 0.44 and 0.38 tiebreaks per set. For context, the best server on tour, John Isner, has won 73.7% of service points over the last year. As mentioned, neither is generally good for tiebreaks, but Shanghai has had 3.3% more holds and 8.9% more tiebreaks than the hard court average over the last 3 years and it has shown in their high number of tiebreaks this week. Last round Medvedev defeated Tsitsipas 7-6 7-5 at a very similar price of 1.44 and combined they have played 7 tiebreaks in 17 sets or 41% with another 2 being 7-5. We can get 3.75 on a first set tiebreak implying a 26.67% chance of a tiebreak. I would have said 3 to 3.25 was fair so the first set tiebreak is my first selection for the Shanghai Masters final.</p><p>I could also see this being a little nervy and swingy, but I would be surprised to see either lose comfortably, so I’ll also take a chance on over 22.5 games at 1.82 with Pinnacle. Again, both are not good for this bet generally as they are far too dominant against weaker opposition, but neither tends to lose badly in similar situations and I would expect more of the same, especially in quick conditions. Medvedev has lost in under 22.5 games just 3 times in his last 50 matches as favourite and in none of his 10 priced as favourite against the top 20. Similarly, Zverev has been priced 2 to 6 against the top 10 in non slam matches on 24 occasions and has lost in under 22.5 games just 5 times, all against Federer, Djokovic and Nadal.</p><p>I was tempted to side with the underdog, but it’s very hard to justify opposing Medvedev and the prices look fair overall. Betting on a tight match seems far more justified and given the prices on offer I will happily take a couple of bets</p><p><strong>Tennis bets: Set 1 Tiebreak: Yes at 3.75 <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=153&a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker">with Betfair</a>, and Over 22.5 Games at 1.82 <a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Bookmaker">with Pinnacle</a></strong></p></div>