US Open 2019 ATP Post Draw Outright Preview and Betting Predictions


Friday, August 23, 2019 9:14 AM UTC

Friday, Aug. 23, 2019 9:14 AM UTC

The US Open Men´s draw has just been released, and we break it down to find the best outright selections for this year´s tournament!

<div><p>We´re back again with a US Open outright preview. In our last article we analyzed the tournament before the draws had been released and made two selections each for the Men´s and Women´s tournaments. Now we get into the nitty gritty, break down the draw in its entirety, and look at the best value outright bets for the last Major of 2019!</p><h2 style="text-align:center">ATP Preview</h2><p>As outlined in the previous article, the Men´s side usually revolves around "The Big Four", who have since become "The Big Three" after Andy Murray's injury struggles. With the reigning Champion and world no.1, Novak Djokovic, having been made the firm favourite since the market opened, does the draw complicate matters for the great Serb? Let´s break down the draw and look at the value selections for the quarter´s markets and outrights!</p><h2>The Draw</h2><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;🐳🎾🍎 2019 US Open Men's Singles Draw... if you can still find Nadal 4/1 that's off by a good 10% &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Whale Capper (@whale_capper) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;August 22, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</div><div><h2> </h2><h2>Quarter 1</h2><p><em><strong>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: Novak Djokovic(1) vs. Daniil Medvedev(5)</strong></em></p><p>Other notable players in the quarter: Fabio Fognini(11), Kevin Anderson(16), Nikoloz Basilashvili(17), Stan Wawrinka(23), Taylor Fritz(26), Hubert Hurkacz, Miomir Kecmanovic</p><p>The first quarter is led by Novak Djokovic, and the world no. 1 won´t be too thrilled to see that he gets Daniil Medvedev, a player mostly everyone wanted to avoid, in his quarter. However, the Champion opens against Roberto Carballes Baena, and should be able to come through projected 2nd and 3rd round opponents Sam Querrey and Dusan Lajovic without too much trouble. The road gets tougher as a battle tested trio of either Kevin Anderson, Stan Wawrinka or Hubert Hurkacz await the Serb, all of which have troubled him in the past. However, Djokovic looks destined to progress to the quarterfinal where Daniil Medvedev likely awaits him.</p><p>The Russian has been a sensation on tour with two titles and five finals to his name, three of the finals coming in the last three weeks. A new world number 5 and seeded as such, a string of opponents such as Prajnesh Gunneswaran, Hugo Dellien (or qualifier), Taylor Fritz and Fognini/Basilashvili shouldn´t be much of an issue. Though the 23-year old has won back to back matches against Djokovic, he hasn´t shown much at Majors in the best of five set format yet, and it´d be surprising if the Serb didn´t navigate his way through in a stern test. With injury concerns clouding Fognini´s and Anderson´s aspirations, and Wawrinka not the man he once was, it´s tough to see anyone challenge the big two in this quarter. A quarterfinal matchup between Djokovic and Medvedev with Novak prevailing is quite a likely outcome.</p><p><em><strong>Predicted semifinalist: Novak Djokovic(1)</strong></em></p><h2>Quarter 2</h2><p><em><strong>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: Roger Federer(3) vs. Kei Nishikori(7)</strong></em></p><p>Other notable players in the quarter: Borna Coric(12), David Goffin(15), Guido Pella(19), Milos Raonic(21), Lucas Pouille(25), Christian Garin(31), Grigor Dimitrov, Alex De Minaur, Pablo Carreno Busta</p><p>In the second quarter, the 38-year old Roger Federer leads the way, and will be incredibly pleased with the draw he´s received. With the potential to face two consecutive qualifiers in the first two rounds, followed by a likely bout with Lucas Pouille, the Swiss should cruise. David Goffin or Guido Pella make for a solid but not too difficult round 4 matchup, and should Nishikori get there, Federer should pray upon the Japanese in a quarterfinal.</p><p>Nishikori has struggled mightily for fitness and form as of late, and his best days look well beyond him. There exists a plethora of players who could take advantage, but as for who actually does is much harder to tell. Borna Coric would be one who is expected to challenge, but the Croat has looked in woeful form since his back injury in Halle and could well fall early to former world no.3 Grigor Dimitrov, should he find some surprising form. Milos Raonic could well emerge from this mini section, but a back injury is seemingly always around the corner, whilst breakthrough man Christian Garin hasn´t been past round 2 of any Major. In a very soft section filled with struggling players, Milos Raonic has the thundering serve and groundstrokes to be successful, and last year´s R16 participant should be able to pounce if he´s fit. It would be a shock for anyone to trounce Federer however, who should waltz into the semifinal mostly untroubled.</p><p><em><strong>Predicted semifinalist: Roger Federer(3)</strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></strong></em></p><h2>Quarter 3</h2><p><em><strong>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: Stefanos Tsitsipas(8) vs. Dominic Thiem(4)</strong></em></p><p>Other notable players in the quarter: Roberto Bautista Agut(10), Gael Monfils(13), Felix Auger-Aliassime(18), Matteo Berrettini(24), Nick Kyrgios(28), Kyle Edmund(30), Andrey Rublev, Richard Gasquet</p><p>The third quarter is shaping up to be one of the most interesting, as several players will feel they have a shot at taking down the top seeds in Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem. The Greek has now exited in his opening match in four of his last six tournaments, notably being upset by Thomas Fabbiano in the first round of Wimbledon. What makes matters worse is that Tsitsipas has been handed a nightmare draw, facing off against the in-form Andrey Rublev in the 1st round, who is fresh off defeating Roger Federer in Cincinnati. A date with recent doubles partner and the man who defeated the 21-year old in the Washington semifinal, Nick Kyrgios, may well await in the 3rd round, followed by a potential Roberto Bautista Agut bout in the 4th round. On current form, it´s unlikely Tsitsipas beats both Nick Kyrgios, and the ultra-consistent force of Roberto Bautista Agut, and should bow out to either before the quartefinals.</p><p>Dominic Thiem won´t have as much trouble reaching the quarterfinal, with Thomas Fabbiano, Alexander Bublik (or qualifier), Kyle Edmund or Lorenzo Sonego, and Monfils/Auger-Aliassime his slated opponents from 1st - 4th round. The Austrian played excellent tennis here last year to reach the quarterfinal and played the match of the tournament in a five-set thriller he eventually lost vs. Rafael Nadal. With an Indian Wells Masters title to his name this year, there are signs that the 25-year old may be improving on faster surfaces. But Thiem is still relatively unproven on those that aren´t slower and higher bouncing. With there, existing a noticeable difference in slowing the speed of play for night matches, of which he will be playing several, as opposed to day matches, coupled with what has been described as "slow" Wilson balls - the condtions may well be to the world no. 4´s liking this year. Coming in well rested having not played since Rogers Cup, Thiem should be in a great position to win his quarter.</p><p><em><strong>Predicted semifinalist: Dominic Thiem(4)</strong></em></p><h2>Quarter 4</h2><p><em><strong>Projected quarterfinal if the seeds hold: Rafael Nadal(2) vs. Alexander Zverev(6)</strong></em></p><p>Other notable players in the quarter: Karen Khachanov(9), John Isner(14), Diego Schwartzman(20), Marin Cilic(22), Benoit Paire(29), Fernando Verdasco(32), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jan-Lennard Struff, Casper Ruud, John Millman</p><p>In the top half of this quarter, no. 6 seed Alexander Zverev is likely to run into immediate trouble. Struggling badly, with on court yips (serving an incredible 150 double faults in his last 18 matches) along with off court splitting with coach Ivan Lendl. The 22-year old gets a really tough draw to boot. Facing off against the spirited Radu Albot in round 1, followed by Tiafoe/Karlovic, Paire, Khachanov/Schwartzman in the subsequent rounds, it´s increbily unlikely to see the German last very long in this year´s US Open. Karen Khachanov or Diego Schwartzman look set to capitalize should Zverev make it that far.</p><p>2017 Champion Rafael Nadal starts his campaign with a stellar matchup in last year´s quarterfinalist John Millman, who will struggle to deal with the Spaniard´s style of play. Thanasi Kokkinakis may be talented but has struggled with shoulder injuries for years and has just come back, and the great Spaniard should roll through the Aussie or qualifier in round 2. While number 32 seed Fernando Verdasco is a big name, he´s far from the form required to challenge Rafa. In the 4th round things get interesting, as one out of the trio of big servers in Jan-Lennard Struff, John Isner and Marin Cilic is the likely opponent. Neither Isner nor Cilic have been in great form though, and Struff has a 2-9 record vs. Top 5 opponents. In the quarterfinal, it´s probably Karen Khachanov who is the most likely opponent, and the Russian pushed Nadal hard last year, eventually succumbing in four tight sets. Karen has struggled for form though, and though we´ve seen a recent upswing, it won´t be enough to stop Nadal.</p><p><em><strong>Predicted semifinalist: Rafael Nadal(2)</strong></em></p><p><em><strong><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></strong></em></p><h2>The Verdict</h2><p>As both of our pre-draw outrights in Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev have been drawn in the first quarter, that one is of no interest to us and a straight up pass. The second quarter looks to be quite one-sided, with no player possessing a realistic chance to contend with Roger Federer. At the price of 1.72, the implied probability reads 58.1%, which looks well off. Though the humidity did him in last year in the R16, the 38-year old navigated through trickier draws than this to make three consecutive quarterfinals and beyond in 2014-2017, and this time the quarterfinal opponent won´t be a man like Juan Martin Del Potro. At this price, Roger Federer to win his quarter is my first selection. In the third quarter, things get interesting as Tsitsipas is struggling for form and might not make it to the quarterfinals. One who could take advantage, Nick Kyrgios, has never been past round 3 here and struggles mightiliy to keep his focus solely on tennis for an extended amount of time. This was shown clearly in his outrage in a match against Karen Khachanov in Cincinnati, where the Aussie lost his head over the shot clock´s starting time, despite not having gotten a time violation. After breaking racquets, hurling insults at umpire Fergus Murphy, ending with a spit in the face, Nick was fined $110,000. Roberto Bautista Agut has been the model of consistency this year, making the quarterfinals or better in most large tournaments, and will be a danger. However, with most of the big threats slugging it out in the top section of the quarter, Dominic Thiem looks set to reign supreme, and at prices of 3.5, Thiem will be my selection to win his quarter. In the fourth quarter, it´s tough to look past Rafael Nadal, who should be able to navigate through the few tougher matchups he faces to a semifinal.</p><p>This matches the Spaniard up against Thiem in the semifinals, a match that the 33-year old should be the firm favourite in. Despite the Austrian taking down the King of Clay four times in thirteen attempts, on hard courts there exists a profound edge for the Spaniard who has the clear statistical edge, whom I´d expect to progress. There, a likely rematch of the Australian Open final vs Novak Djokovic awaits. At a price of 2.50, Nadal to make the final is my final selection.</p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Roger Federer to win quarter 2 at 1.72 (18/25) with Betfair 2u</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=8ec6399a-9df1-4c52-b272-39e6428836a6&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Dominic Thiem to win quarter 3.5 at (5/2) with [Betfair] 1u</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Rafael Nadal to reach the final at 2.50 (3/2) with [Bet365] 2u</strong></em></a></p><p>Again, there were so many things to go into, but too little time (and space). If you have any questions regarding my selections, or anything tennis related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter [@SnizeMaster]. Thank you for being with me this far, and until next time, sayonara!</p></div></div>
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