Can Schwartzman keep it competitive and take a set against Nadal?
<div><h2>Rafael Nadal vs Diego Schwartzman</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, September 4, New York</strong></p><p>Nadal managed to fend off a reasonable display from Cilic (at times) to make the quarter final and it’s hard to look past the Spaniard in this match up. Schwartzman has given Nadal a lot to think about in the past and often rises to the occasion on the big stage, but he’s always fallen short of the upset. I’m happy to bet on a tussle with the Spaniard coming out on top in 4 sets.</p><p>Nadal dropped the second set to Cilic 6-3 last round and won just 48% on his second delivery neither of which suggests he is playing his very best. These days his best is generally reserved for clay and elsewhere most have chances if they play intelligently and try to play above their usual level. Nadal tends to be vulnerable for at least some of the match against the best players on a hard court having dropped a set in 25 of his last 50 priced sub 1.5 against the top 20. Nadal is 1.06 for this match and has won 48 of his last 50 priced sub 1.2 including 21 in a row so I’m not keen to oppose the Spaniard but I am happy to bet on him dropping a set.</p><p>Schwartzman is a tricky and often underrated player whose diminutive size conceals a fiery and fierce competitor. He has won a set in 6 of his last 10 against the top 10 and in 4 of his 8 matches since 2017 against the big 3 – Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. He trails the H2H 7-0 but they met at the Australian and French Open last year and Nadal won in 4 on both occasions. I watched both matches and it is very clear that he understands the most important factor in hurting Nadal – take time away from the forehand – but struggles to execute the game plan for long. He was able to play well above his usual level for a time and then, as with most players, he burned out and Nadal took back control.</p><p>Match scores are often a difficult bet to quantify but I have a strong feeling that this offers value at anything over 4.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Rafael Nadal 3-1 at 4.4 with Ladbrokes</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Belinda Bencic vs Donna Vekic</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, September 4, New York</strong></p><p>Nice to see our 9 to 1 tip for the quarter is now a 1 to 2 favourite but I’m a little surprised by the prices on offer and feel hedging some of the profit is a sensible play.</p><p>Bencic was impressive last out defeating Osaka in straight sets and she will surely have one eye on the title having already dethroned the defending champion. With any luck she will maintain her excellent form but there is always the risk of a comedown after a big upset. If she is distracted by title ideations, she could find herself losing focus and possibly the match.</p><p>As often with the big hitting, big stage players Bencic struggles for consistency against worse opposition. Priced as favourite against the top 50 she has won 25 of her last 50 for a -9.6% ROI as well as 9 of her 18 over the past 12 months for a -15.6% ROI. Vekic is ranked 23.</p><p>Vekic is also only slightly worse than Bencic based on most longer-term metrics and she actually has a better service/return points won total over the past 12 months at 104.2% compared to 103.4%. Vekic has won 9 of her 19 matches as underdog over the last 12 months for a 24.4% ROI and while the H2H is 2-1 to Bencic the only match since 2014 came this year with Vekic a 6-4 6-1 winner priced 2.3 at the French Open.</p><p>Vekic opened at 2.37 with most books and my price range was 2.2 to 2.4 so if nothing else the drift seems to have offered us a good spot to hedge. I would suggest you at least cover for breakeven and I’ll be taking 2 points meaning +2.26 if Vekic wins and +7 if Bencic wins.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Donna Vekic at 2.63 with Pinnacle [only if you followed our tip for Bencic to win the quarter at 10]</strong></em></a></p></div>