Can Medvedev shake off fatigue against surprise semi-finalist Dimitrov?
<div><h2>Daniil Medvedev v Grigor Dimitrov</h2><p><strong>Friday, September 6, New York</strong></p><p>Dimitrov’s upset over Federer last night is the tournament’s biggest so far from a betting odds perspective with the Bulgarian priced at 12. Not many would have tipped Dimitrov to make the US Open semi final with his outright price 201 in places and his form dire coming into the event. Federer was struggling with a back injury, but it was still a very strong performance from Dimitrov to make his third semi at a major and first at the US Open.</p><p>Medvedev is a 1.61 favourite and it is hard to argue with that price all things considered. It is clear that Medvedev is increasingly struggling physically but the question remains as to when his legs will actually give way. Regardless, the prices are clearly taking fatigue into account and despite Grigor’s solid form in the Federer match it is hard to see an obvious value angle from a match betting perspective. Instead we’ll follow the stats and take a chance on a more obscure market.</p><p>Specifically, we’ll take a chance on under 9.5 games in set 1 at a price of 2.75. I can’t say this is a market which makes a lot of sense for this match up in general with Medvedev 6’ 6” and Dimitrov 6’ 2” though neither is particularly serve orientated. However, the stats make it clear that 2.75 is simply too long and indeed most bookies agree with the standard price being around 2.25.</p><p>Priced 1.5 to 1.99 on hard courts Medvedev has played 29 opening sets with 16 of them going under 9.5 games or 55% and 34 of his 72 sets in total at this price range have gone under 9.5 games or 47%. Priced 2 to 2.99 on hard courts Dimitrov has played 27 opening sets with 12 going under 9.5 games or 44% and 27 of his 68 in total are this price range have gone under 9.5 games or 40%. In total at the respective odds ranges this bet has landed in 28 of the 56 opening sets or 50% and in 61 of the 140 sets in total or 44%.</p><p>Medvedev’s fitness concern may make this a sloppy, two-sided affair but it may also mean he goes for everything and either paints the lines or looks completely jaded. Either way, at worst it seems like 44% is a decent estimate which would equate to odds of 2.25 or in other words the price most bookies have chosen.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><strong>Best Bet: Set 1 Under 9.5 Games at 2.75 with Unibet</strong></a></p><p><strong><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></strong></p><h2>Womens US Open</h2><p><strong>Friday, September 6, New York</strong></p><p>Bencic gave us a handy winner for the quarter at 10 defeating Vekic 7-6 6-3 and hopefully Andreescu can get the job against Mertens to land our second quarter outright at 5.5. Not much appeals from the betting front so I’ll survey the action.</p><p>Serena was clinical against Wang who was very poor on the day and as expected it was the serve which really let her down losing 6-0 6-1. The home favourite will face Svitolina next up and while I was tempted by 3.25 on the Ukrainian, I can’t say it represents good value all things considered. There is always a chance Serena throws in a wobbly performance, but she has looked very strong this week and while Svitolina has also been in good form, she doesn’t have the best record priced over 3 against the top 10.</p><p>Andreescu is a slight favourite against Mertens and again this price seems about right. The Canadian has been clinical all year and looks a solid favourite in this match up but Svitolina is a decent underdog and has looked solid though untested this week. If anything, I would probably side with the favourite in some capacity, but the prices seems about right and after a profitable week on the women’s side I’m happy leaving the semi-finals.</p></div>