US Open Day 2 Preview and Top Betting Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Monday, August 26, 2019 7:32 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 26, 2019 7:32 PM UTC

Can Karlovic turn back the clock against the rising talent Tiafoe?

<div><h2>Ivo Karlovic vs Frances Tiafoe</h2><div><strong>Tuesday, August 27, New York</strong></div><div> </div><p>Karlovic is the oldest player in the ATP at 40 and yet in recent years the veteran has still consistently managed to trouble the better players on tour. Tiafoe is a talented youngest who has been inside the top 30 but he struggles for consistency and often loses to lower ranked players.</p><p>The one dimensional, serve orientated game of Karlovic is effective against virtually everyone and on a particularly good day he can be unplayable. There is rarely a lot of rhythm in Karlovic matches and players can get caught cold. He basically forces better players to play their best game and maintain focus consistently over a match, both things Tiafoe has struggled to do of late. Over a total of 185 matches as underdog in his career Ivo has an exceptional 18.1% ROI and on hard courts that number raises to 26.3% over 85 matches. As underdog at the US Open, he’s won 2 of 4 for a 60% ROI. At 40 you would generally expect a decline in ability but over the last 12 months he has won 7 of 15 as underdog for a 27.4% ROI. He is clearly a worse player than 10 years ago, but the bookies continue to underestimate his ability nonetheless.</p><p>At 21, Tiafoe is on the other end of his career and is a well know rising talent. As sometimes happens with young talents he has been unable to live up to the hype and especially struggled to consistently beat lower ranked players on tour. Priced as the favourite he has won 29 of his last 50 for a -10.9% ROI and more notably he has won just 13 of 27 over the last 12 months for a -28.1% ROI. The US Open also hasn’t been kind to the home hope winning just 1 of his 6 matches at the venue though he has certainly played some excellent tennis at the event taking Federer and Isner to 5 sets. It is precisely these kind of matches where he has manged to rise to the occasion yet when priced as favourite at the US Open last year he lost 6-4 6-0 5-7 6-2.</p><p>Ivo opened at 3 with most bookies and 3.31 with Pinnacle. I would have said 2.75 to 3 was fair so this drift has offered us some good value.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Ivo Karlovic at 3.86 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Kristie Ahn vs Svetlana Kuznetsova</h2><p><strong>Tuesday, August 27, New York</strong></p><p>Kuznetsova is a wily veteran of the WTA circuit, yet I can’t help but think this price is influenced too much by her recent run to the final of Cincinnati. Ahn is a talented, up and coming player who has been a punters best friend of late and I wouldn’t be surprised if she put up a good fight here in front of a home crowd.</p><p>Kuznetsova played brilliantly last out to make the final of Cincinnati beating 3 top 10 players including Barty, world number 2. If she plays at the same level, she may justify her odds, but a couple of things make me happy to take her on. Firstly, conditions in New York are very different to those in Cincinnati. Kuznetsova has not done well at the US Open generally with a -23.8% ROI and -11.8% ROI when priced sub 1.5. Perhaps she will struggle to adjust and/or simply dislike the conditions. Secondly, Kuznetsova has a -6.5% ROI over 222 matches as favourite on hard courts and has won just 12 of her last 22 matches as favourite in general since August 2017. Her ability to beat the best has not translated into an ability to consistently beat lower ranked opposition.</p><p>Ahn is also no push over against better opposition with a 36.4% ROI as underdog this year and 53% ROI over her last 10. Priced 3 to 6 she has won 3 of 9 over the last 12 months for a 49% ROI. She has a balanced, adaptable game and while I would generally expect Kuznetsova to be a little too good on the day, I wouldn’t count Ahn out. If there is any cumulated fatigue from Cincinnati, then she will be poised to take advantage.</p><p>Ahn has drifted from an opening price of between 4 and 4.5 with most all bookies to 5. I would have said 4 was fine so I’m happy to give her a chance at the prices.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Kristie Ahn at 5 with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><div> </div></div>
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