US Open Day 4 Preview and Tennis Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Wednesday, August 28, 2019 5:41 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2019 5:41 PM UTC

Can young talent Andreescu take full advantage of the declining Flipkens?

<div><h2>Kirsten Flipkens vs Bianca Andreescu</h2><p><strong>Thursday, August 29, New York</strong></p><p>Two players at opposite ends of their career and it feels like Andreescu will have all the answers. Flipkens has had her moments in her career but has generally been unable to put up much resistance against the very best.</p><p>Andreescu has surpassed all expectation in the WTA so far most recently taking the title in Toronto. She has impressed in virtually every way from consistency to tenacity and her ability to beat both the best and worst players on tour day in and day out is very rare to find.</p><p>She is priced 1.1 for this match up and, while I would be stunned to see her lose, I prefer to take a longer odds approach. Turning to the stats we see that this line has won or been returned in 17 of 25 matches priced sub 1.2 or 68% and we are getting odds implying a 53% strike rate. On hard courts it has won or been returned in 13 of 18 priced sub 1.2 or 72%.</p><p>Flipkens can be a dangerous player on her day but has been poor over the last 12 months with a 16-23 record and -15% ROI. She appears to be dealing with age related decline and one of the areas this is most notable is against the very best, which make sense given their ability to push every element of your game out of its comfort zone. Priced over 6 she has played 25 matches and this under bet has landed or been returned in 18 or 72%. On hard courts it is 11 of 15 or 73%.</p><p>We can see a clear pattern in the stats and given the generally opposing trajectories of their respective careers it seems logical to side with Andreescu to win this comfortably.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Under 19 games at 1.88 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p><h2>Pablo Andujar vs Lorenzo Sonego</h2><p><strong>Thursday, August 29, New York</strong></p><p>Andujar and Sonego have contrasting styles, the former more defensive, reactive and consistency based, the latter centred around powerful hitting and big serving. Both have played well recently and in their opening match and while I can understand Sonego being clear favourite I see no reason to suspect this will be an easy match for the Italian.</p><p>Sonego is serve orientated holding 85% and breaking just 20% over the last year at main level. Tour average is 78%/22%. Generally, he is not a player I like to oppose outright as he is very motivated, talented and (generally) a fighter but he tends to struggle to win easily. Priced sub 1.5 at main level the over bet has won in 14 of his 19 matches including his last 7 in a row and 9 of 12 in 2019.</p><p>Andujar is not serve orientated but he is in better form than the odds imply and he should be more than comfortable matching Sonego from the back of the court. His over bet stats are not as impressive, but that is largely down to him winning comfortably as an underdog which seems highly unlikely in this match. He has only lost in under the total games line 9 times in 31 matches priced 2 to 6 in slams. Last round he defeated Edmund in 5 sets priced at 4.8 showing a lot of grit and importantly he served well.</p><p>I would have said over 38.5 at 1.83 was sensible. Happy to take near evens on a better line.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Over 37.5 games at 1.97 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p></div>
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