US Open Day 5 Preview and Top Betting Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Friday, August 30, 2019 9:41 AM UTC

Friday, Aug. 30, 2019 9:41 AM UTC

Will Lorenzi give a respectable performance against Wawrinka?

<div><h2>Stan Wawrinka vs Paolo Lorenzi</h2><p><strong>Friday, August 30, New York</strong></p><p>Stan is one of the most consistent performers on tour at slam level, but he always tends to work his way into form and doesn’t generally take the weaker players to pieces. Lorenzi is a wily veteran whose game is based around using variation to disrupt rhythm and he generally gives a respectable performance against the top players.</p><p>Wawrinka’s game isn’t designed particularly well to demolish players. He generally hits too many unforced errors and goes for a bit much even when he could probably just outlast opponents, or at least be more patient. In hard court slams priced sub 1.2 he has won 33 of 34 matches but this games handicap has landed in 30 of those 34 matches.</p><p>Lorenzi is the kind of player who will generally make Stan a little uncomfortable with his high amount of variation and ability to make it awkward. In hard court slams Lorenzi has played 11 matches priced over 6 and he has covered this line in 8 with the losses coming against Djokovic (x2) and the then 5 ranked Berdych. The last 6 in a row have seen this bet land going back to 2014. In the H2H the pair have played 6 sets in the past all of which Stan has won but none have been below 9 games: 6-3 6-4, 6-3 7-6 and 6-3 6-3. All we need here is 6-3 6-4 6-3 or better.</p><p>Lorenzi had an impressive win over Kecmanovic last round priced at 10 though it does bring fitness concerns given they played yesterday and again today. Wawrinka also played yesterday and hopefully Lorenzi has enough energy left to keep this close regardless. Certainly, if he plays similarly to how he did yesterday I feel he will cover the handicap line very often.</p><p><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Lorenzi +8.5 games at 1.85 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p><a href=";a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Elina Svitolina v Dayana Yastremska</h2><p><strong>Friday, August 30, New York</strong></p><p>Two Ukrainians face off and given their opposing form I am happy siding with the 19-year old Yastremska. Svitolina has experience on her side, but she has not been impressive this year while her compatriot has stormed to a career high ranking in August.</p><p>Yastremska has a 19-18 record when priced 2 to 3 for a 21.7% ROI and she has won 9 of her 13 matches as any kind of underdog over the last 12 months for a 89% ROI. On hard courts she has won 11 of her 20 matches as underdog for a 38.7% ROI. Against the top 20 priced as underdog she has won 3 of 7 matches for a 26.7% ROI. In essence, she has been superb to bet on in virtually all areas but especially as an underdog on hard courts.</p><p>Svitolina is a top 10 player and can be superb on the day, but she is inconsistent and liable to losing where she shouldn’t. She has won 33 of her last 50 matches as favourite for a -10% ROI and priced 1.5 to 1.99 she has won 27 of her last 50 for a -13.3% ROI. The recent record of these two players is similar but the big difference is who has made punters money. Both have won 67% of matches on hard courts in 2019 and Yastremska has won 71% of matches on hard over the last 12 months for a 33% ROI compared to Svitolina’s 64% match wins for a -10% ROI. Yastremska actually has a better 12-month service and return points won percentage at 103.9% compared to 102.7% for Svitolina.</p><p>The price opened at 2.37 with most and I would say 2 to 2.2 was a fair price. Happy taking anything over 2.5.</p><p><a href=";a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Dayana Yastremska at 2.54 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p></div>
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