US Open Day 6 Preview and Top Betting Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Friday, August 30, 2019 9:26 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 30, 2019 9:26 PM UTC

Can Ahn continue her impressive form with a win over the clay specialist Ostapenko?
<div><h2>Kristie Ahn v Jelena Ostapenko</h2><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank">Saturday, August 31, New York</a></strong></p><p>Ahn has given us winners at 4.33 and 5 so far and I’m happy siding with her for a third time against the out of form clay specialist Ostapenko. The former world number 5 now sits at 75 in the world and with Ahn’s excellent recent form it would be no surprise to see the underdog take this match.</p><p>Ostapenko does all her best work on the red dirt with a 63% winning record lifetime and 15% ROI. If we look at just indoor and outdoor hard courts she has won just 48% of her last 50 for a -8.8% ROI.</p><p>Perhaps more importantly her form has been poor over the last 12 months winning just 39.53% of her matches (17-26 record) for a -13.3% ROI and on hard courts she is even worse winning 38.46% of matches (10-16 record) for a -20.8% ROI. Ostapenko has always been temperamental and tends to play her best tennis as the underdog.</p><p>Priced as the favourite she has won just 9 her 19 matches over the last 12 months for a -22.8% ROI. The most telling stat is that as a 1.5 to 1.99 favourite on outdoor hard she has won just 3 of her last 12 going back to the start of 2018 for a ridiculous -131.7% ROI. She is priced 1.6 for this match.</p><p>Ahn is an opponent who will disrupt your rhythm and mix up her style of play and Ostapenko is generally a power based player so can struggle to maintain her range against tricky opponents.</p><p>As mentioned in the previous article Ahn is also very impressive statistically and a hard court specialist winning 21 of her last 50 when priced as underdog on hard courts for a 24.8% ROI. Most impressively she has won 11 of 23 as underdog on hard courts over the last 12 months for a 51.9% ROI and she has won 5 of her last 10 as underdog against top 100 opposition for a 83.2% ROI.</p><p>The main concern is that Ostapenko can play herself into form and had a strong win over Riske last round priced 3. However, she managed to save 13 of the 17 break points and took 6 of the 10 she generated suggesting she was somewhat lucky to come through the match. Similarly she saved 8 of 13 against her priced 1.5 against Krunic in the first round taking 6 of 10 which again suggests she is getting luck or playing unsustainably well on key points.</p><p>Regardless, Ahn has been superb so far with a 7-5 6-2 win priced 5 against Kuznetsova and a 6-2 6-3 win priced 2.4 against Kalinskaya and I’m happy siding with the home favourite.</p><p><strong><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" target="_blank">Best Bet: Kristie Ahn at 2.55 with Unibet</a></strong></p><p> </p><h2 style="text-align:center">Diego Schwartzman vs Tennys Sandgren</h2><p style="text-align:center"><a href="" target="_blank"><strong>Saturday, August 31, New York</strong></a></p><p>Schwartzman is 5’ 7” and the most return orientated player on tour. He has won the third most return games in 2019 behind Nadal and Djokovic and in 2018 he was second to only Nadal with Novak third.</p><p>Schwartzman’s matches have been good for under games bets for his entire career and again in 2019 he has gone under 9.5 games in in 77 of his 137 sets or 56% yet consistently you can get over 2 on under 9.5 games in set 1. When Schwartzman is priced as favourite the set 1 under 9.5 bet is even more likely having landed in 64% of his last 50 matches on hard courts.</p><p>Sandgren is not an ideal candidate for this bet as he is 6’ 2” and serve orientated but this bet has still landed in 5 of his last 10 matches priced 3 to 6 on hard courts and in both his matches so far this week.</p><p>Conditions should suit with the US Open playing slower and slower each year and so far in 2019 we have seen 76.9% of games held compared to the tour average of 79.3%. On balance this should surely be more like 1.8 or at most 2 so I’m more than happy going in at 2.33.</p><p><strong><a href=";a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" target="_blank">Best Bet: Set 1 Total Games: Under 9.5 at 2.33 with Unibet</a></strong></p></div>
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