US Open Day 8 Preview and Tennis Betting Predictions

Tennis Pilot

Monday, September 2, 2019 6:26 AM UTC

Monday, Sep. 2, 2019 6:26 AM UTC

Can Bencic stop the defending champion Osaka in her tracks?

<div><h2>Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic</h2><p><strong>Monday, September 2, New York</strong></p><p>Osaka has struggled to find her best form since winning the US Open last year and Bencic, who has a superb record against the elite, seems like value to stop the defending champion in her tracks.</p><p>Osaka has spoken openly about her difficulty maintaining focus after her first grand slam title last year and she had injury concerns coming into the US Open, retiring in Cincinnati, though that seems to be at bay for now. Either way she has not been able to consistently beat the better players on tour with a 15-11 record against the top 50 and she has won just 5 of her last 10 going back to May. Bencic is 13 in the world so perhaps the most notable stat is that Osaka has won just 5 of her 14 matches priced as favourite against the top 20 for a -33.2% ROI.</p><p>Bencic is similar to Osaka in that she is a player with a very high peak but sometimes struggles for consistency. She has won 72% of matches in 2019 compared to 71% for Osaka and she has a 15-10 record against the top 50 for a 45.1% ROI. The most impressive stat is that she has a 18-14 record priced as underdog against the top 10 for a 90% ROI. Bencic also leads the H2H 3-1 winning the last 3 meetings of which 2 came in 2019. Most comparably she beat Osaka 6-3 6-1 priced 2.75 in Indian Wells back in March.</p><p>The main worry is that Osaka looks to be finding her form at this event which will bring back some very positive, motivating memories but I would still have said 2.5 was fair so it’s clear value for me at 3.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Belinda Bencic at 3 with Bet365</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Alexander Zverev vs Diego Schwartzman</h2><p><em><strong>Monday, September 2, New York</strong></em></p><p>Clash of form against class in this match up. Zverev is a top 10 player and clear favourite on best form but Schwartzman has been the better player in 2019 and has a history of being consistently underrated by the markets.</p><p>Zverev has been woeful in 2019 and has suggested that personal issues are to blame. He is dealing with a lawsuit against former agent Patricio Apey, recently broke up with his girlfriend and reportedly his father has had medical issues. “Everything that happens outside the court affects you”, said Zverev back in July. “In the last two days, I would say are very rough for me personally. I'm not going to get into details, but I'm just saying. I have to fix that to play well on the court.”</p><p>More recently Zverev has spoken about having fixed some of the issues and being focused again on the tennis but we are yet to see any real change in his form. The German has a 66%-win percentage and -14.5% ROI for 2019 and his service/return points won percentage is 103.4% which is well below top 10 level. Most notably he has been very poor against better opposition with a 8-9 losing record against top 50 opposition in 2019 for a -35.6% ROI and he has won 0 of 4 priced 1.5 to 2 against the top 50. Turning to his form in this event, it took the German 5 sets to defeat Albot and Tiafoe and 4 sets to dispatch of Bedene. Zverev has won just 47.5% on his second serve indicating his very average level from the baseline of late.</p><p>Schwartzman by contrast has been in good form this year and has been a punters best friend. Schwartzman has a 66%-win percentage and a 14% ROI for 2019 and his service/return points won percentage is better than Zverev’s at 104.6%. Again, the most notable stat is his record against top opposition with Schwartzman holding a winning 13-10 record against the top 50 in 2019 for a 20.4% ROI and he has won 6 of 7 priced 2 to 2.99 against the top 50 for a 98% ROI. In contrast to Zverev who has spent 10 hours on court and dropped 5 sets so far this week, Schwartzman has spent just 5 hours 30 minute on court and not dropped a single set.</p><p>Have to say I was hoping for a slightly better price on Schwartzman, but I still feel he is the value play at anything over evens.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Diego Schwartzman at 2.07 with Pinnacle</strong></em></a></p></div>
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