Can Federer maintain his H2H dominance over Dimitrov?
<div><h2>Roger Federer vs Grigor Dimitrov</h2><p><strong>Tuesday, September 3, New York</strong></p><p>A common nickname for Grigor is ‘baby Fed’ in reference to similarities in their playing style but the H2H makes it clear who is in control of the match up. Federer has won all 7 meetings and despite a decent showing so far at the US Open Dimitrov has been poor overall in 2019.</p><p>Federer is historically very consistent against the lower ranked players in majors and while recent form is a little less impressive, perhaps reflecting his age, he is still clear value based on the stats. Federer has worked his way into form this week winning his last two matches very comfortably: 6-2 6-2 6-0 against Evans and 6-2 6-2 6-1 against Goffin. He is 1.1 in this match and priced sub 1.5 against the top 50 in hard court majors the 6.5 game handicap has won or been void in 72% of his last 50 matches going back to 2010 including 15 of the last 20 since the start of the US Open in 2015. To be clear, Dimitrov is not a top 50 player at the minute (though he may be after this week) but I’m using a wide range to be conservative especially since Dimitrov has been a top 10 player.</p><p>The H2H is the most damning factor with Federer holding 95.2% compared to 70.6% for Dimitrov. Federer has won 16 of their 18 sets and they have largely been dominant: 7-6 (x2), 6-4 or 6-3 (x7), 6-2 or 6-1 (x7). In their last slam meeting at Wimbledon back in 2017 Federer won 6-4 6-2 6-4 and in their first slam meeting Federer won 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-4 so he won by 6 games. They have met 5 times outside of slams and in 4 of those the equivalent handicap line would have landed.</p><p>Dimitrov has been good this week with an impressive win priced 2.75 against De Minaur last round. Nonetheless he’s been poor overall in 2019 with a 18-15 record and -17.4% ROI and he is generally poor against the elite with a dreadful 5-43 record and -36.6% ROI priced 3+ against top 10 opponents.</p><p>I would expect Federer to continue the one-sided H2H and I’m happy taking this handicap line given the stats.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="US Open Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best Bet: Federer -6.5 games at 1.93 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Womens US Open</h2><p><strong>Tuesday, September 3, New York</strong></p><p>We picked up a handy winner with Bencic at 2/1 against Osaka who is also our 10/1 tip for the quarter. The women’s side has been fairly open this week, but I can’t see much clear value for day 9.</p><p>Serena as always is the centre of focus and the draw has been kind. Wang had an excellent win over Barty last round, and she may well be able to push the home favourite, but Serena has been more impressive than I expected coming into the week. I would expect Wang to be competitive from the baseline but my worry in this match is Wang’s vulnerability on serve. She has also won just 2 of 12 priced 3 to 6 against the top 10 for a -40% ROI. I’m happy choosing a more obvious spot to oppose Serena this week.</p><p>Svitolina plays Konta and this is an intriguing match-up. The H2H is 4-0 with the last two both coming in 2018 and Svitolina has a 2.1% edge in the service/return points won total. However, Konta has been close in 2 of those meetings and she has been the more impressive and punter friendly player in 2019. My intuition based on their form this week is that Svitolina is a rightful favourite, but I can’t see any value in the prices.</p><p>We’re in good profit for the womens so far this week and I’m happy waiting for better opportunities to present themselves.</p><div> </div></div>