Can Grigor Dimitrov continue his dream run against his fatigued opponent?
<div><h2><strong>Daniil Medvedev(5) vs. Grigor Dimitrov</strong></h2><p><strong>Friday, September 6, New York</strong><br /><br />Daniil Medvedev is a machine. He just keeps on going. The quarterfinal matchup against Stanislas Wawrinka was the twenty first match that the Russian has played in just 35 days. After making back-to-back-to-back finals in the weeks preceeding this tournament, the 23-year old has looked to be running on fumes all week. But the new world no.4 has found a way to win, against all odds. In the quarterfinal against the ill Wawrinka, fitness concerns were once again prevelent, and the bookmakers made him a large underdog - despite statistical dominance in almost every category imaginable pre-match. During the match, this was a recurring theme, with the Russian being made underdog even being up both a set and two sets. No one expected the 23-year old to last, and he was certainly in physical discomfort throughout the match, making 21 UE in the first set, 9 being double faults. However, the lanky Medvedev displayed an excellent change of tactics to rush the net, slice and play drop shots, disrupting Wawrinka´s rhythm. As the match went on, the world no. 4´s physical condition improved, and by the fourth set he looked to be back to full fitness.<br /><br />Grigor Dimitrov didn´t even expect to be here. By his own admission, the Bulgarian barely expected to even scrape by the fourth round, and now here he stands in a third Major semifinal. The former world no.3 has been on a downward spiral that never seemed to end, sputtering out of the world top 75 prior to the US Open. Dimitrov had only made one quarterfinal all year, and a shoulder injury coupled with a lack of form has made this year a rough oner. But finally fit again, the 28-year old has looked a new man in the Flushing Meadows, playing sublime tennis to beat Alex De Minaur in straight sets to set up a quarterfinal with Roger Federer. A man that the Bulgarian had never previously defeated. Starting poorly to break himself with double faults in the very first game, many perhaps felt this would be an eight consecutive loss for Dimitrov against the great Swiss. But it was apparent from the get go that this would be a competitive match. Displaying some sublime tennis, the Bulgarian managed to take control of most of the baseline rallies. Though Federer was badly misfiring and later revealed to be suffering from a back injury, nothing can be taken away from the free-spirited tennis displayed by Grigor.<br /><br />However, this match quite frankly comes down to one thing, and one thing only: Medvedev´s physical condition. From a talent standpoint, even with Dimitrov´s upswing in performance lately, the Russian is dominant. The world no. 4 is a whopping 301 points ahead in the hard court ELO ratings, and 11.7% better in the yearly hold/break ratings. Even looking at career tour level numbers on hard courts, Medvedev still outperforms Dimitrov and leads the hold/break 107.7% to 103.9%. Matchup wise, Daniil has one of the best serves on tour, and can both display plenty of aggression - or turn into an inpenetrable wall on defense. In the prolonged baseline rallies, it´ll be incredibly difficult for Grigor to break through, while returning as a whole will be a challenge. His own serve will be under stern examination all match long. Looking at the head to head matchup, it´s 1-1 with both matches played in 2017. Back then, Dimitrov was ranked world no. 11 and Medvedev 49. Yet it was the Russian who prevailed in Washington 6-4, 6-2. Needless to say, the 23-year old has improved by leaps and bounds since. He´s now had two full days off, and should be fit enough to compete once more. And if fit, there is not much that speaks in favor of Grigor. In decent condition, this is a match that the Russian wins with a bit to spare. If not, he´s unlikely to win at all and may well retire. Thus, we´ll go for a big priced winner here, and bet on Medvedev to win with at least 6 games. The -5.5 handicap pays a fine 2.70 with Unibet, and is a nice investment in this one.<br /><br /><em><strong><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds">Best bet: Daniil Medvedev -5.5 games at 2.70 (17/10) with [Unibet] 1.5u</a></strong></em></p><h2><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a><br /><br /><br /><strong>Matteo Berrettini(24) vs. Rafael Nadal(2)</strong></h2><p><strong>Friday, September 6, New York</strong><br /><br />Matteo Berrettini´s magical run continues, and the 23-year old Italian has been one of the stories of the tournament thus far. After making his maiden Major quarterfinal, it looked to be a tough outing for Matteo, who couldn´t settle at all early on. It´s to be expected, playing in the largest arena in the world seating 23,000 fans, in the biggest match of his young career. The first set quickly ended 3-6 with some wild errors and a Monfils who looked locked in from the get go. As the 23-yer old started to settle though, the Frenchman´s level was wildly fluctuating. The humidity was a large factor in this match, both players even sweating through their socks and shoes, but it was Monfils who struggled most. Guilty of mental lapses and strategical errors, the world no.12 consistently targeted the lethal Berrettini forehand and was punished badly for it. As we entered the fifth set, this pattern continued, and Berrettini served for the match at 5-4. Understandably, the 23-year old then got incredibly tight, and double faulted on match point to get broken. What´s been so impressive and continues to be about this young man however, is how he bounced back. Double faulting on match point could´ve broken any player in this situation, but Matteo´s positive attitude and focus on the next points allowed him to close out the win.<br /><br />It´s setting up to be a title run for Rafael Nadal at this point, who´s been the beneficiary of injuries and illnesses befalling many of his competitors. With both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer out, Nadal´s path to a potential title won´t go through any of the other "big three" for the first time in many years. However, it´s still a treacherous road for the great Spaniard, who had to battle both the humidity and a fierce competitor in Diego Schwartzman last night to get to this stage. The Argentinian was able to do what he´s done in most of the pair´s head to head matchups, which is to pepper the Nadal backhand. Playing excellent first strike tennis would not be enough to protect his serve from Rafa though, who was able to go 4-0 up in the first set and 5-1 up in the second set. However, from there the world no.2 struggled, and misfired badly with a whopping 28 forehand unforced errors (compared to only 8 in his match against Cilic). There were also slight concerns as the Spaniard cramped in his forearm, which seemed to be related to the high humidity. Nadal certainly won´t like the forecast for this tousle, as it´s set up to be similar as the Schwartzman contest.<br /><br />Berrettini has the weapons to hurt Nadal: The big serve, forehand and aggressive ballstriking. However, the big question is: Can he execute? Against Roger Federer at Wimbledon the 23-year old was dispatched easily in straight sets. Could there be a similar effect when facing up against the pedigree of another big three opponent on the biggest of stages? It took a full set for the Italian to settle against Monfils, who didn´t play a superb match tactically. Nadal will be able to loop his topspin forehand into the weaker backhand wing of the Italian, exploiting any short balls that come back. The Italian does have a crushing serve, and if serving well he´ll be able to get a lot of easy points - especially since Rafa stands so far back to return and can lack depth because of it. However, I do believe another slow start is on order for Berrettini, who´s struggled with his nerves. Coming from a five set epic, he could be physically hampered, and with the occasion playing its part, the great Spaniard will take advantage. Though the Italian is a huge server, the world class returning of Rafa will mitigate much of that advantage. It looks set up to be a fast start from the Spaniard, who could´ve easily won the first set against Schwartzman 6-0. Any nerves or physical struggles from his opponent will be ruthlessly punished, and with the under 9.5 games in set 1 paying 1.66 with Unibet, it seems the bet here.<br /><br /><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Under 9.5 games set 1 at 1.66 (33/50) with [Unibet] 1.5u</strong></em></a></p></div>