The US Open is coming up next week but can we find a big priced finalist in Winston Salem?
<div><p>The outright price of the Winston Salem finalists has ranged from 8 to 201 and it has had the 13th highest number of underdog winners on tour. As with most pre slam tournaments it tends to be a graveyard for the seeds. Bautista is the only top seed to ever make the final back in 2017 and qualifiers have made two finals, a semi and a quarter final since 2011.</p><p>Lots of reasons to take a chance on an outsider, especially as the field looks weak this year with just 9 players holding a 100% or higher combined service/return points won percentage on hard courts in 2019. The top of the outright market is as follows: Querrey at 8, Paire at 12, Carreno-Busta at 12, Evans at 13 and Shapovalov at 15. I feel these are mostly opposable especially given the pre slam dynamic.</p><p>The most opposable duo in my opinion are Paire and Querrey who head the top and bottom quarter respectively. Paire is generally awful in pre slam events but it is Querrey who I’m most keen to take on this week and the man of choice is Ramos-Vinolas at 51. The Spaniard is known as a clay specialist and if this were being played on clay he would likely be a similar price to Carreno or Shapovalov. Yet his results on hard courts are perfectly respectable and he is in strong form having made the semis in his last 3 main level events including a title run in Gstaad and final in Kitzbuhel.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>It is certainly true that most of Ramos’ success has come on clay, but he has been much more profitable on hard courts with a 29.2% ROI. This is slightly skewed by a huge priced win at 19 against Federer but if we look at matches priced under 6 against the top 50 he has a 45.2% ROI. In 2016 he made the final in Chengdu at a similar outright price to this event with impressive wins over Thiem priced 4.7 and Dimitrov priced 3.5 before a tight 3 set loss to Khachanov.</p><p>His projected draw is Rublev, Querrey, Shapovalov, Hurkacz and finally Paire. Ramos holds a surprising 8-3 H2H over the group with no matches against Shapovalov and Hurkacz. Most notably, he has won all 4 matches against Querrey since 2014 with two of those wins coming on hard courts priced 3.75 and 2.9 (indoors).</p><p>More generally, all these players have shown a tendency to struggle for consistency and have been good to oppose. Priced as favourite in main level, non-slam events:</p><p>· Rublev has won 26 of his last 50 for a -21.9%</p><p>· Querrey has won 30 of his last 50 for a -12.7% ROI</p><p>· Hurkacz has won 12 of 20 for a -6.4% ROI</p><p>· Shapovalov has won 30 of his last 50 for a -7.5% ROI</p><p>· Paire has won 30 of his last 50 for a -6.5% ROI</p><p>Paire has a 1-5 record at this event and is winless since 2013, Querrey has lost 4 of his last 5 at the event since 2014 and Rublev has a 1-2 record with a 6-3 6-2 first round loss last year priced 1.4. Hurkacz and Shapovalov have never played the event.</p><p>This is one of the most open events of the year. I couldn’t put anyone off backing a fair few long shots with some viable contenders including Gunneswaran, Carreno-Busta, Hoang, Sonego, Krajinovic and Carballes Baena. I’m happy to take Ramos who will hopefully have the legs for this event after 2 weeks off following his final run in Kitzbuhel.</p><p><strong>Best Bet: </strong>Ramos-Vinolas outright at 51 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bet365</a></p></div>