WTA China Open Day 5 ATP China Open Day 3 Best Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Tuesday, October 1, 2019 5:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019 5:43 PM UTC

Andreescu has the class to cover the handicap against Mertens

<div><h2>Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, October 2, Beijing</strong></p><p>Andreescu has been very kind to us at Oddsmarket and I see little reason to stop siding with her in this match. Mertens is a dangerous player on hard courts but was eclipsed by the class of Andreescu when they met at the US Open and I would expect more of the same.</p><p>Andreescu is on a 14-match winning streak having won her last 2 events and has won 46 of her 51 matches in 2019 for a 63.3% ROI. Her most exceptional results have come as the underdog, but she is also very consistent as the favourite winning 33 of 36 in 2019 and in just 3 of those the -2.5 games handicap would have lost. She met Mertens at the US Open and despite dropping a set she still won by 4 games.</p><p>Mertens is not a player I oppose lightly on hard-courts but I am surprised she is as short as 2.37 for this match. Unlike Andreescu she has had a poor season overall with a 58% win-rate and -9.75 ROI. She has won just 4 of 21 priced 2 to 2.99 against the top 20 for a -51.7% ROI and the -2.5 games handicap landed in all 17 losses.</p><p>Backing Andreescu rarely needs much justification and again this seems like an obvious opportunity for the Canadian to continue her excellent 2019 form.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Bianca Andreescu -2.5 games at 1.93 with Pinnacle [1u]</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Dominic Thiem vs Zhizhen Zhang</h2><p><strong>Wednesday, October 2, Beijing</strong></p><p>Thiem put in a good performance in his opening round this week but struggles as a short-priced favourite on hard courts in general. I imagine he’ll be tested by the young, rising talent and home hope Zhizhen Zhang and the +4.5 games handicap looks generously priced at 2.09 based on a few factors.</p><p>Thiem is the 1.12 favourite for this match and on face value it is tempting to think he should have it fairly easy in this match. He is over 200 places higher in the ATP rankings and leads the 1-year hold/break by a whopping 11.4%. The main problem for the Austrian is that he struggles on hard courts, especially at the end of year and in China. Priced sub 1.5 in non-slam hard court events he has covered the -4.5 games handicap in 16 of 46 matches including just 3 of 13 since 2018. His scheduling is known for being poor and clay biased meaning he struggles later in the year. Unsurprisingly, then, his record in China is poor overall and he’s 4-8 with a -48.5% ROI in China. Priced sub 1.5 he’s covered the handicap in 1 of 6 matches yet we can get 2.09 on the trend continuing against a talented, serve orientated home player.</p><p>Zhang is 6’ 4” and his game is based on strong serving, heavy hitting and shot making. The 22-year old is talented and in good form and he should be able to take time away from Thiem who has a long wind up on his shots. In September he won his maiden Challenger despite being priced as underdog in 5 of 6 matches and he has a phenomenal 43% ROI in 2019. The main unknown is that Zhang has never played anyone ranked higher than 32 though notably that was last round where he defeated Edmund priced 3.2. He may get caught cold if he can’t raise his game for the occasion, but history suggests that is unlikely. He has won 7 of 12 priced 3+ in 2019 and he’s covered this handicap in 9 of his last 10 at this price range.</p><p>Thiem did play well in his opening round against Gasquet winning comfortably, and Beijing is generally awful for underdogs, so I’ll stick to a half unit stake here. Even so, I would have said +4.5 should be below evens so at 2.09 it’s a solid bet.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Best bet: Zhihzen Zhang +4.5 games at 2.09 with Pinnacle [0.5u]</strong></em></a></p></div>
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