WTA Finals and Paris Best Bets: Barty vs Kvitova

Tennis Pilot

Wednesday, October 30, 2019 7:54 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2019 7:54 PM UTC

Barty and Kvitova look set to go the distance for the fourth time in five meetings this year

<div><h2>Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova</h2><p><strong>Thursday, October 31, Shenzhen</strong></p><p><strong>Opening Odds:</strong> <a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/wta/wta-finals-women-singles/ashleigh-barty-vs-petra-kvitova-3967302/?mtid=126" target="_blank">Barty 1.80 // Kviova 2.05</a></p><p>More drama ensued with Andreescu, originally second favourite for the tournament, retiring injured once again opening up the field. Pliskova was the beneficiary and thankfully our bet on 3 sets was void. We have 2 matches for Thursday’s play as Barty takes on Kvitova and Bertens takes on Bencic.</p><p>Bertens is a little bit of a mystery having apparently benefited greatly from a couple days rest after the Zhuhai finals, and Bencic has potential fitness concerns but looked much better last out than in the first round. My guess is it will be a close, serve orientated match but the condition of both players a little too much up in the air for me to say with confidence.</p><p>Barty and Kvitova seems clearer and again, perhaps unsurprisingly given it is the year end finals, I’m expecting a very competitive match and going with 3 sets at 2.4 with Betvictor. These two have looked solid if not spectacular so far this week and have a tendency to play close matches priced similarly against the elite.</p><p>Barty is priced 1.8 and has gone the distance in 7 of her last 10 priced 1.5 to 1.99 against the top 10 going back to the start of this year. Kvitova is priced 2.2 and has gone the distance in 11 of her last 20 priced 2 to 2.99 against the top 10 going back to 2015. Perhaps most importantly, these two have gone the distance in 4 of their last 5 matches with 4 of those coming in 2019 and 1 in 2017.</p><p>All in all, I think this should be 2.1 to 2.2 so I’m happy to take anything 2.3+ and 2.4 seems like decent value.</p><p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Total Sets: 3 at 2.4 with Betway</a></p><p> </p><h2>John Isner vs Cristian Garin</h2><p><strong>Thursday, October 31, Paris</strong></p><p>We got even more than we needed on Wednesday as Garin and Isner went to not just a first set tiebreak, but also a second, though sadly our outright hopes were swiftly over with Garin taking both tiebreaks. Khachanov was also a casualty, this time to Struff, and while he was a touch unfortunate, it’s clear we didn’t get the step up in form we needed for him to contend for the title. It seems unlikely, but if you can get anything around 21 on Zverev outright that seems like a good spot with the German looking good in his opening round.</p><p>The matches of interest available at the time of writing include Thiem vs Dimitrov, Chardy vs Garin, De Minaur vs Tsitispas and Zverev vs Shapovalov. All of the above feature underdogs who may have chances on the day, but the pricing seems fair to me and, as often, it may be that the side markets offer the clearest value.</p><p>Chardy and Garin is the match of most interest to me and specifically 3 sets at 2.5 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bet365</a>. The pair are priced fairly close in the prices with Garin a 2.5 underdog and on recent and immediate form this looks set to be a very tight affair. Chardy has only manged to win or lose in straight sets in 26 of his last 50 priced 1.5 to 1.99 while Garin has won or lost in 2 in just 13 of his 25 priced 2 to 3 on indoor and outdoor hard. The H2H has also seen 2 of their 3 matches since 2017 go the distance and 3 of 5 H2H matches in total.</p><p>I would have said 3 sets should be closer to 2.2, so at anything over 2.3 it seems worth a bet and certainly at 2.5.</p><p><strong>Best Bet:</strong> <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Total Sets: 3 at 2.5 with Bet365</a></p></div>
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