WTA Finals Semi-Finals Preview and Top Tips

Tennis Pilot

Friday, November 1, 2019 8:00 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 1, 2019 8:00 PM UTC

Shenzhen has seen just one of fourteen matches complete in under 20.5 games so far this week and that trend looks set to continue as we head into the semi finals

<div><h2>WTA Finals</h2><p><strong>Saturday, November 2, Shenzhen</strong></p><p>We’re into the semi finals in Shenzhen and it’s still very difficult to call the winner. Svitolina and Barty share joint favouritism going into the semis but Pliskova and Bencic are close behind. Both semi-finals seem likely to be high quality affairs if fitness holds up and once again value seems thin on the ground.</p><p>Bencic takes on Svitolina in a fourth career meeting and the underdog leads that H2H 2-1 (1-1 in 2019). It is unusual for two players who have consistently been ranked very close (currently 7 and 8) to have played relatively little, though they have met twice in 2019, most recently in August where Svitolina won 2 and 4. Bencic won the other meeting 7-6 in the third and based on this week’s form I’d probably agree Svitolina has the edge, though 2.5 is tempting on the underdog.</p><p>At the expense of sounding like a broken record, perhaps over 20.5 games is a bet once again. There have been 14 matches so far at the WTA Finals and just 1 has been completed in under 20.5 games. This over line has also lost in just 1 of the 3 H2H matches, 11 of 23 for Svitolina priced 1.5 to 1.99 vs top 20 opposition on indoor and outdoor hard courts, and 6 of 18 for Bencic priced 2 to 2.99 vs top 20 opposition on indoor and outdoor hard courts. None of their combined 6 matches this week have been completed in under 20.5 games and I would expect more of the same, so over 20.5 games at 1.78 with Unibet is my first selection for the semi final.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>The second match sees Barty a 1.8 favourite against Pliskova, which seems about right. I think Bencic is a better bet if you want to take anyone on the money line, but again I can’t look past the obvious strategy of betting on a long match. These two are even more suited to the over bet, though the line is one notch longer at 21.5.</p><p>Barty and Pliskova are both serve orientated holding 15.2% and 13.3% more than the 12 month WTA average and breaking just 1.1% and 1% more respectively. Over 21.5 games would have lost in 2 of the last 10 for Barty priced 1.5 to 1.99 against the top 20 on indoor and outdoor hard court going back to the start of 2019. For Pliskova over 21.5 games would have lost in 3 of the last 10 priced 2 to 2.99 against the top 20 on indoor and outdoor hard court going back to the end of 2016 including just 1 of 5 in 2019. In the 5 H2H matches over 21.5 games has lost in 1 despite only 2 going to 3 sets. They have made it to a tiebreak in 6 of their 12 H2H sets (3 of 7 on hard courts) and just 1 of the 12 has gone under 9 games.</p><p>They both look to be in strong form and improving over the tournament, but they have also had to work hard with only 1 of their 6 combined matches so far this week being finished in under 21.5 games. Given the tendency to play long matches so far in Shenzhen, alongside the H2H and both long and short term trends, it seems sensible to assume we will get more of the same.</p><h2><strong>Best bets: </strong></h2><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Svitolina vs Bencic over 20.5 games at 1.78 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=a710bfac-73c1-4a57-b441-2caf1b9f397b&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Tennis Betting Odds"><em><strong>Barty vs Pliskova over 21.5 games at 1.85 with William Hill</strong></em></a></p></div>
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