Home hope Alexandrova has the form to maintain her fine record indoors.
<div><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>WTA Moscow</strong></h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Monday, October 14, Moscow</strong></p><p>We are onto week 42 on the WTA tour and thankfully back in Europe for the 30th edition of the Kremlin Cup in Moscow, Russia. Last week was a little frustrating with Bautista and Berrettini giving us a decent run for our money before the Italian lost in his semi final against Zverev. One more match would have guaranteed a good pay-out but that’s how it goes with long priced outrights.</p><p> </p><h2>History & Context</h2><p>The Kremlin Cup was founded in 1990 and is a Premier Tournament on the WTA Tour. It was held at the Olympic Stadium until 2018 but the 2019 edition is being held at the Ice Palace Krylatskoye, Moscow. The event is played on a RuKortHard indoor hard court and conditions have historically been slow, but this year is an unknown. Last year’s winner was Darya Kasatkina with Ons Jabeur the runner up and Svetlana Kuznetsova is the only player to win the event twice since it became a Premier Tournament in 2009.</p><p> </p><h2>Quarter 1</h2><p>Svitolina is the top seed in quarter 1 alongside seventh seed Sakkari with Pavlyuchenkova the other main contender. Svitolina hasn’t had the best year overall and had recent injury concerns. Her form has been up and down overall with some excellent streaks of form followed by poor losses and while she is clearly the rightful favourite for this event it’s difficult to see any value at 4.5. Sakkari always has appeal but it’s hard to judge whether or not the surface will suit and Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t been in great form for most of this year and has a poor record late on in tournaments. Kudermetova and last year’s finalist Jabeur both have appeal both generally and based on immediate form but it’s difficult to pick between them and they play in the opening round.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&f=3"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><h2>Quarter 2</h2><p>Vekic heads the second quarter with Alexandrova her fellow seed while both Muchova and Kuznetsova are also strong contenders in this quarter. Vekic has had a solid year overall but a poor few weeks and she generally doesn’t do her best work on indoor hard. Alexandrova by contrast hasn’t had the best year overall but her recent form is strong and she plays some of her best tennis on indoor hard. Earlier this year she won a WTA Challenger event on indoor hard in Limoges. Muchova has been a model of consistency this year and always has appeal but her price feels fairly short at 15. She plays Kuznetsova first out who is 21 outright and has been turning back the clock in 2019. This is a very tough opening round match for both which makes them difficult to bet on.</p><p> </p><h2>Quarter 3</h2><p>Bencic is the high seed in quarter 3 alongside Yastremska with last year’s winner Kasatkina and Siniakova the other clear contenders. Bencic and Yastremska are players with a high peak who could certainly win this event on best form, but their prices do not reflect their lack of consistency and especially their questionable immediate form. Yastremska lost 6-4 6-0 last out priced 1.44 while Bencic lost 6-2 in the third priced 1.3. Neither offer value to me at the prices. Kasatkina plays very well here historically and should obviously be motivated. She showed some good form last out making the quarter final in Beijing beating Sabalenka, world number 14, on the way, but her overall form for 2019 is poor. Siniakova is similar in that she’s shown good form here in the past but has been poor in 2019.</p><p> </p><h2>Quarter 4</h2><p>Bertens heads the bottom quarter alongside Sevastova with Mladenovic and Putintseva the other major contenders. Bertens has been in poor form for 2019 though her immediate form is a little more mixed with an excellent run to the Beijing semi final followed up by a loss to Cauff priced as heavy favourite. She tends to go well indoors but I certainly see no value in the second seed at 7. Sevastova is another one having a bad year and she has especially struggled to compete with the better players on tour. Perhaps one of Mladenovic or Putintseva could take advantage and both have their merits. Mladenovic has struggled late on in tournaments but clearly has the ability to stay with the best while Putintseva struggles against elite opposition but has had a good year overall.</p><p> </p><h2>Verdict</h2><p>It feels like quite a dense tournament with little standing out as clear value based on the longer term trends and immediate form. Most players have a lot of both pros and cons alongside question marks about fitness and motivation as the year comes to an end. All of Jabeur, Kudermetova, Kasatkina and Alexandrova appeal to me in different ways at the prices but the player who seems least conflicting is Alexandrova.</p><p>At 21 outright the home hope offers a solid alternative to the high seeds in the top half. Her immediate form is strong with a win over Halep followed by a run to the semi final of Linz. Indoor hard is one of her best surfaces with a 31.2% ROI over her last 50 matches on the surface and her 2 main level titles and 3 main levels finals have all come on indoor hard. She has a strong 5-8 record against the top 20 at main level for a 37.9% ROI and more generally she has a 20-29 record and 36% ROI against the top 50.</p><p>Her draw is kind early on with a qualifier followed by Potapova and I would fully expect her to make the quarter final. This is where the going gets tough against one of Vekic, Kuznetsova or Muchova but again she has shown she can keep it competitive against this level of opposition and will certainly have her chances on form. If she meets Svitolina in the semi I would expect the top seed to be too good but given the clear question marks surrounding her fitness and immediate form I can’t help but think she is opposable overall.</p><p>All in all, I would have had her closer to the price of Muchova, Pavlyuchenkova and Yastremka at around 15 so at 21 she has appeal and is my selection this week.</p><p><strong>Best Tennis Tips: <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Ekaterina Alexandrova each way at 21 with Bet365</a></strong></p></div>