WTA Wuhan Day 2 & ATP Chengdu Day 1 Top Betting Tips

Tennis Pilot

Sunday, September 22, 2019 6:45 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 22, 2019 6:45 PM UTC

Home hope Shuai Peng can continue Muguruza’s hard-court woes
<div><h2>Shuai Peng vs Garbine Muguruza</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/wta/wta-wuhan-china-women-singles/muguruza-vs-peng-3917293/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, September 23, Wuhan</strong></a></p><p>We had success taking on clay specialist Muguruza as favourite last week and I see no reason to hold fire once again. Wild card Shuai Peng is a hard-court specialist who has a history of causing upsets in front of a home crowd and with any luck she will continue that trend in this first round encounter.</p><p>I covered Muguruza’s hard-court woes in the previous article but I will rehash them briefly here. She has a big, power orientated game but lacks consistency which is often a recipe for a poor favourite. Muguruza is priced 1.55 for this match and priced 1.2 to 1.99 she has won 54% of her last 50 matches for a -21.5% ROI including just 4 of her last 10. When priced specifically 1.5 to 1.99 she has won just 1 of 8 matches in 2019 including her last 6 in a row. On hard courts generally she has a -11.6% ROI over her last 50 matches compared to a lifetime 15% ROI on clay. In essence, she is a poor favourite and does all her best work on the red dirt.</p><p>Peng by contrast is a hard-court specialist with a 10.2% ROI over her last 50 matches and she leads the service/return points won percentage by 0.2% over the last 12 months on the surface. She has won 40% of her last 50 as underdog on hard courts for a 25.7% ROI including 5 of 9 over the last 12 months for a 56% ROI. On hard as underdog against the top 20 she has won 5 of her last 10 for a 98.3% ROI going back to 2016 and as underdog on hard at home she has won 5 of her last 10 for an 84.4% ROI going back to 2016.</p><p>I would have said 2.2 to 2.3 was fair so it’s an easy bet at 2.63.</p><p><strong>Best Bet</strong>: Shuai Peng at 2.63 with <a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=1ba923f3-5341-4bda-b457-0138ac61ae7a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Betfred Today!">Betfred</a></p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=164&amp;a=f339dce1-88de-4994-ab6a-c24e019bdf3b&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0003/1348572/WHC_27064_Updated-In-Play-Tennis-Insurance_1280x480NEW.jpg" style="width:100%;height:38px" /></a></p><h2>Bradley Klahn vs Jason Jung</h2><p><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/atp/atp-chengdu-china-men-singles/jung-vs-klahn-3919562/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds"><strong>Monday, September 23, Chengdu</strong></a></p><p>Slim pickings for value seekers on Monday with just the three matches scheduled from the opening round of the Chengdu Open. Though I wouldn’t rule out the talented Christian Garin, I feel that Edmund and Evans are both likely to make their way through as favourite and there appears little in the way of viable underdogs. Instead, I’ll take a chance on over 22.5 games at 1.95 in expectation of a long match between Bradley Klahn and Jason Jung.</p><p>Klahn is the main focus of this bet as a 6’ 3” leftie who is very serve orientated. Over the last year at main level on indoor and outdoor hard courts he has held 85.3%, broken 10.6% and played 0.33 tiebreaks per set. Tour average is 80% holds, 20% breaks and 0.2 tiebreaks per set. He is 1.61 for this match and 30 of his last 50 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 on hard courts have gone over 22.5 games.</p><p>Jung is 5’ 11” and balanced rather than serve or return orientated so he’s not ideal for this bet, but not bad. He has almost exactly average stats with 80.3% holds and 19.9% breaks over the last year at main level on indoor and outdoor hard. The main question is whether he will be able to hold off the favourite since Klahn has only lost in under 23 games 3 times in his last 50 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 on hard courts. Jung has had two matches to warm up this week and should be superior from the back of the court. He has only lost in under 23 games in 28% of his last 50 priced 2 to 2.99 so he has a history of holding on well as underdog.</p><p>Chengdu is not ideal for over bets as a medium pace outdoor hard-court event with high humidity, but it still has 0.5% more holds and 5% more tiebreak per set than the hard court average.</p><p>All things considered, I would have said this should be 1.72 to 1.8 so at 1.95 it’s an easy bet.</p><p><strong>Best Bet</strong>: Over 22.5 Games at 1.95 with <a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Pinnacle</a></p></div>
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