Can in form Tomljanovic keep it close against top seed Pliskova?
<div><h2>Karolina Pliskova vs Ajla Tomljanovic</h2><p><strong><a href="https://www.oddsmarket.com/tennis/world/wta/wta-zhengzhou-china-women-singles/karolina-pliskova-vs-ajla-tomljanovic-3908480/?mtid=126" target="_blank">Saturday, September 14, Zhengzhou</a></strong></p><p>We were quite unfortunate with our bet on Pliskova to beat Hercog 2-1 as the underdog led 5-2 in the second set before an extended, 2 day rain delay ruined her rhythm. Hercog had 5 set points, 4 on her own serve and the 2-1 was down to 1.61 in play but sadly she couldn’t convert and faded badly to lose the last 5 games of the match. At the risk of being a broken record, I feel this is a similar match up with Tomljanovic a player a tall, power orientated player who often pushes top opponents but rarely has enough to get over the line.</p><p>Pliskova is the top seed and based on all statistical metrics you would expect her to come through this match at least as much as the odds imply. As mentioned when I tipped 2-1 against Hercog, Pliskova is a player who rarely loses when she shouldn’t but at 6’ 1” she often relies on her serve when her baseline game goes awry leading to long matches against solid underdogs. In this match she is 1.33 and priced sub 1.5 she has won 45 of her last 50 matches, so not one to oppose generally. However, the 2-1 has landed in 17 of those or 34% suggesting odds of around 3.</p><p>Tomljanovic is 5’ 11” and, like Hercog, she is a good candidate to keep it close but lose. She has been in good for this week most notably defeating 3rd seed Bertens in straight sets priced 3 and on current form I would expect her to put up a good fight. Priced over 3 against top 20 opposition since 2017 she has played 12 matches and lost in 3 sets on 7 occasions despite winning just twice. The H2H is also supportive with 2 recent matches (both 2019) one of which was 2-1 to Pliskova.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&a=b4150791-892f-469b-9b6a-7dfc6df0fb07&f=1" target="_blank"><strong>Best Bet: Pliskova 2-1 at 4.2 with Ladbrokes</strong></a></p><p> </p><h2>Petra Martic vs Kristina Mladenovic</h2><p><strong>Saturday, September 14, Zhengzhou</strong></p><p>Two fairly evenly matched players both looking in strong form this week and I doubt either will have an easy time of it in this semi-final. No clear moneyline value stands out as is often the case in very close matches but betting on 3 sets seems like good value to me.</p><p>Martic is a very consistent performer and top 30 player but her biggest strength is her serve and against the better baseliners she often finds it hard to win comfortably. Priced 1.5 to 1.99 against the top 50 she has gone the distance in 5 of her last 10 and in 2 other matches the 3 set was returned as a player retired. Priced 1.5 to 1.99 on hard courts 3 sets has landed in 44% of her last 50 matches. She’s played well this week but again has struggled to win in straight with her last 2 matches going the distance.</p><p>Mladenovic has also played very well this week defeating second seed Svitolina in 3 sets last round. She is more return orientated than Martic though at 5’ 11” she has a strong serve. Her game is perhaps less consistent than Martic but more fiery and impressive when at her peak. Stats are less clear for Mladenovic though not poor with 40% of her last 50 priced 1.5 to 2.99 going to 3 sets and 38% of her last 50 priced 2 to 2.99.</p><p>In essence, I imagine Mladenovic will be better from the baseline and is likely have hot patches where she simply outplays Martic, but the consistency of Martic may well win over in the end and certainly is likely to see her win a set.</p><p><strong>Best Bet: Total Sets: 3 at 2.74 with Unibet</strong></p></div>