Zhuhai WTA Elite Trophy Final

Tennis Pilot

Saturday, October 26, 2019 7:29 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 26, 2019 7:29 PM UTC

Bertens has the pedigree to hold her own against Sabalenka in Zhuhai.
<div><h2>Aryna Sabalenka (4) vs. Kiki Bertens (1)</h2><p><strong>Sunday, October 27, Zhuhai</strong></p><p>We are into the final of the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai after a nice winner last out as Sabalenka defeated Muchova 7-5 7-6 to comfortably land our bet on over 20.5 games at 1.83. The final sees fourth seed Sabalenka as favourite against top seed Bertens and based on their respective form this week I would expect a good quality match.</p><p>It will be unsurprising to regular readers that I am once again siding with the over market and the reasoning is very much the same. Bertens is 6’ 0” while Sabalenka is almost 6’ 0” and they are statistically serve orientated for top 20 players. Bertens has held 10.5% more than the WTA average over the last year while Sabalenka has held 9% more, and they have broken 0.5% less than the average and exactly on the average respectively.</p><p><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=168&amp;a=4417b7df-a48f-47f3-9b45-f79858bc083a&amp;f=3"><img alt src="https://images-production-euw2-753931602578.s3.amazonaws.com/5d582dcf927b95968483da5f/original-10-bet-new-customer-welcome-bonus" style="width:100%" /></a></p><p>Sabalenka is a 1.57 favourite and, as mentioned in the last preview, she tends to struggle to win easily against quality underdogs. Priced 1.2 to 1.99 against the top 20 on indoor and outdoor hard the over line has landed in 9 of 14. Bertens is world number 8. More generally, she has played 43 matches priced 1.2 to 1.99 against the top 50 on indoor and outdoor hard and 28 have seen the over 20.5 line land (65%) including 5 of her last 6.</p><p>Bertens certainly comes under the category of quality underdog winning 27 of her last 50 priced over 2 for a phenomenal 24.1% ROI and she has won 8 of 13 in 2019 for a 34.2% ROI. Of those 50 matches 31 saw this over bet land or be returned (62%) and the over line would have been lower for several. Priced over 2 against the top 20 on indoor and outdoor hard the over has won or been returned in 7 of 8 in 2019 and 16 of 21 since the start of 2018.</p><p>I considered backing Bertens but a couple of things make me lean towards the over line. Sabalenka, while not the best favourite generally, is on a strong streak of form and statistically she tends to follow this through to the end of tournaments. Priced under 2 in quarters, semis and finals she has a 32-10 record and 19% ROI and in finals alone she is 8-2 for a 22.1% ROI. These two also met in Wuhan just a month ago and Sabalenka won 6-1 7-6, though overall Bertens has won 4 of their 5 matches (3 of those 5 have seen the over bet land and both indoors).</p><p>The main point is that I am about as sure as possible about the value of the over bet, while the win seems harder to read, so I’ll stick to the lower variance option which seems likely to land whoever wins.</p><p><a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=93&amp;a=4fd3c129-b898-4816-9a61-9f7e8f34295a&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow"><em><strong>Best bet: Over 20.5 Games at 1.82 with Unibet</strong></em></a></p></div>
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