Betting isn’t easy. Betting and being profitable is even harder. Combine that with being an actual fan of football and a team in particular and sometimes things can get even tougher.
This week, SBR set me the challenge of looking ahead at a match where I’m horribly biased and picking out a winning bet.
The game is Tottenham v Manchester City on Saturday.
The bias is, I’m a Tottenham Hotspur fan.
OK, so I could try and avoid the challenge by going for something in the goals market or Both Teams To Score. But that’s generally not the way I work. I think those of you that read my Premier League Round Up articles each week know that I’m a Match Odds (or 1X2) kind of guy.
To stay true to myself and be fair to you, the reader, I really need to stick to that.
And that’s where bias comes in. I could look at the stats and talk about Spurs current winning run and their excellent form at Wembley this season. And yes, Spurs are on a 6 game winning streak and have just equaled their best unbeaten run in the Premier League era. Tottenham have also not lost in the Premier League in 2018, the only Premier League side with that record.
If I tried to go too far against bias, I could talk about how fantastic Manchester City have been, both at home and on the road this season. And they have been. I could point to the goal-scoring stats which shows them as the highest scorers in the league, the highest scorers at home and the highest scorers when playing away. Simply put, they have a devastating strike force and that midfield isn’t bad either when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net.
Their defence isn’t bad either. People may moan about John Stones’ inability to concentrate, Vincent Kompany’s poor injury record and Nicolas Otamendi, in general, but this Manchester City side have the strongest defence in the league. Playing attacking football.
Both managers are fantastic. Man City’s Pep Guardiola has learned how the English game works and bent it to his will, and Tottenham’s Mauricio Pochettino has built a team of young and hungry players on a tight budget. OK, not Burnley tight but still lower than the other sides around them.
So, it is with grudging respect and the acknowledgement that Manchester City are the better side, that I go for a Manchester City victory (+177 with Pinnacle). Once again we will see the Premier League champions being crowned at Tottenham’s home ground and once again, it won’t be “my” side that gets given the trophy.
Oh well, there’s always next year!